The Johnny's Family Club for Arashi has approximately 440,000 members. Or at least that's how many memberships have been issued--it's anyone's guess if the person with membership number 00000001 (Johnny-san?) is still active. Like every other institution in Japan, your membership number is your position in the chronology of things, you joined after X people. That's probably why they had to add the two 0's on to the front of the numbers--just in case they got into the millions.
I went to the Globe theatre website and counted the seats on the seating chart. There are 700 seats. So that's 700 people to make a full house. There are 34 performances of Nino's butai. Which means that an audience of 23,800 people will get to see it.
Let's assume that every single number issued for the fanclub belongs to an active member. And let's say the members have even numbers of fans, so that's about 88,000 people per member of Arashi. If all the people designated "Nino fans" in the FC applied for tickets, given that every seat in the house would go to the fanclub, only 27% could win. Out of the entire fanclub, only about 5%.
But the entire house won't be fanclub -- there will be some seats reserved for VIP and special guests. The lottery was also only for the S section, which I assume to be the first floor. This cuts down the number of available seats to 450 (x 34 performances = 15,300 seats), and the chances of scoring a ticket are even slimmer. Out of the entire fanclub, 3.4% of people could have won. The other two sections, the 2nd and 3rd tier, only old 150 and 100 seats respectively so the tickets for those will be snapped up like nothing else when the Playguide goes live.
What odds we face as members of the fanclub... it almost seems easier (or at least more likely) to score tickets in an auction or from a scalper. To those of you gunning for Playguide and what have you, I wish you the best of luck.